The judge has ruled, and I accept his decision.  A little more than a year ago, I remarked on Ooma’s product and service, and declared that they would not last a year.  Dean Collins took me up a steak bet, and Alec agreed to be the judge.  I lost. Congratulations to Dean on his steak dinner, and to the employees of Ooma who have, so far, proven me wrong.

The basis of my bet was simple: the last thing that this industry needed was another residential box play, especially with the lose-a-little-but-make-it-up-in-volume strategy shown by Vonage. In addition, I felt like the value added feature strategy was ill conceived and basically ignored what years of value added services on cell phones have taught us: people don’t know they exist, and even if they do, they don’t tend to change their habits to use them.  And, speaking of cell phones, if there’s a clear thing about telephony it’s that we’re converging on the mobile device.  Try sticking one of those Ooma boxes in your pocket.

What did I get wrong? Well, this is still conjecture, and I’ve been wrong before (obviously), but here’s some thoughts:

1. I made the bet about “being in business”.  Apparently, it takes a while to spend $26 million dollars, and with their new $16 million round of funding, it looks like they’re going to be around for a while.
2. Maybe this is a case where, even though I was right relatively speaking, it’s a big, big world and there’s room for also-rans.
3. I should have predicted the arrival of top-rate talent like Rich Buchannan, who has succesfully placed Ooma into Best Buy (I saw it).

The bottom line? I lost.  The investor’s bottom line?  -42 million dollars, so far.  I still say I should buy Dean a hot dog, for this still isn’t a steak event.

To those at Ooma who might read this: I’m really not rooting against you.  Please prove me wrong; I’ll admit it when I am.   I’m just one who looks at the (insane) ROI that voice mashups provide, and see the 100 million dollar exits from Ribbit and asks himself “Why the heck would anybody throw 42 million dollars there?”.

Dean, if you would, please forward to me a picture of you in front of the steak. Make it a good one, and add a lobster tail.  Somebody deserves to make something from Ooma. Glad it’s you.