Dean Bubley had an excellent post this morning about the EComm show coming in March:

Sure, there’s some high-profile movement around Skype, Vonage, Truphone and all the rest. But to be honest, that’s still a very small sliver of the overall telecoms marketplace, with the possible exception of international call traffic.

I’ve been talking to a lot of people recently about ‘non-telephony VoIP’, aka voice mashups, or application-embedded VoIP. I’m expecting this to become a lot more important in a qualitative sense in 2008-9, albeit rather hard to measure quantitatively.

He’s absolutely right here, on all accounts. VoiceMashups will be a lot more important in qualitative sense in the coming years, and due to their “minor” role in larger applications, hard to measure quantitatively. I’ve been thinking a bit about this myself, and here’s some of the progress I’ve made in terms of how to measure the market, what drives it and who participates:

1. In terms of market share and size, I do not expect to see the VoiceMashup market sized by ports shipped. Better metrics will be clicks, pages or sites. For today’s marketplace, I would expect to see a similar treatment as is given to technologies such as Ajax or Flex.
2. In terms of eco-system and value chain, I expect to see a number of web services providers that directly compete with platform vendors, partnered with tens of thousands of web developments shops and internal IT departments, and servicing every single vertical in the market. Tool vendors will provide some incremental expansion of this market, but it is more likely that open source tool or existing tool vendors will expand their offerings to include voice mashup functionality.
3. Business models for voice mashups will follow cost savings or business process improvements. I think it’s unlikely that voice mashups generally create new revenue opportunities. This is the direct result of the supporting nature of voice mashups of other, larger applications.
4. No easily defined channels currently exist for telecom web services providers. I’m way sure of this one. In terms of effectiveness, business process consultants provide the best channel for their introduction into the enterprise or application provider.

We’ve got some plans to make more detailed analysis of these issues in the new year… stay tuned for that.

Technorati Tags: telco mashups, thomas howe, voice

Posted by Thomas Howe @ 12:55 pm | Filed Under Lead Stories | Leave a Comment

I’m not done digesting the recent uncovering of Ribbit, but I’ve got some initial impressions:

• I’m very impressed with yet another bold move into the Telco 2.0 space, this time by Ribbit. In the future, many carriers will look a lot like them.
• I’m unconvinced with regards to Ribbit’s view of market segmentation. It’s simply not true that the “spot solutions” identified in their model have limited growth potential. I believe that the basic issue is that the features defined in this segment enhance other applications, and they aren’t stand alone. I bet that they will actually be the lion’s share of the market in usage, deployments and revenue.
• Somebody in marketing, please, kill the byline of “Silicon Valley’s First Phone Company.” I hope they mean this in the “First Lady” sense.
• Revenue sharing, huh? I’d love to see that model work. No really, I would. Let’s see if, in this world of extremely low barriers to entry, RIbbit has something that no one else can provide. Verizon et. al, pay attention.
• Although I’m a bit jarred by the choice to require Flex as a development platform, I love how Webby Ribbit is. Not saying that Ajax is a better choice or anything, it’s just really cool to see a TELEPHONE company thinking like this.

Posted by Thomas Howe @ 1:46 pm | Filed Under Lead Stories | Leave a Comment

We’ve got another article in IPConvergence.tv about the intersection of IMS and Mashups:

Can you think of two more different application platforms than IMS and Web as platform? I bet that, in fifty years, it will be difficult to imagine that both architectures were developed during the same period in time, and that both had such massive amounts of attention and investment. Whereas it is quite clear that the Internet is here to stay, and that software as service will dominate application architectures for as far out as we can see, the role of IMS in this larger environment is less clear. Read the rest of the story…

Hats off to the forward thinking sponsors of this wonderful site. I personally believe that there is a place for IMS, but it will never be the dominant application platform. Many people disagree. I’ve been wrong before, and maybe now again, but IPConvergence.tv is a place to hear all voices. Hear, hear!

Posted by Thomas Howe @ 2:17 pm | Filed Under Lead Stories | 11 Comments

This post will require a few iterations before it ever truly gets finished. Comments are encouraged. Regardless, 2007 has been extraordinary as we’ve seen the evolution of several new industry spaces and a few major corporate strategic initiatives begin to unfold.

Gartner defined Communications Enhanced Business Processes as a new software space in 2007. This was wonderful for Avaya and their CEBP offerings as it provided a strong strategic rationale to being taken over by private equity. Firms like Lignup and BlueNoteNetworks  with their large VC investments  claimed a role in the space too.

At the same time the Web and Open Source world have seen the technologies associated with the Internet Operating System multiply and mature. Specifically, communications technologies became mashable and highly scaleable. Many dozens ,if not hundreds, of Web 2.0/Telco 2.0 companies have appeared with offerings.  This growth has allowed the term, Voice Mashups, to become the non proprietary, open or cross platform method of handling CEBP.

Of course, Microsoft and Cisco also started doing battle over the Unified Communications space with product launches.  Analysts have been hard at work trying to figure out how CEBP and UC fit into each analyst’s own market matrix. I’m sure Venn Diagrams will come in handy.

Finally, the (SDP) Service Delivery Platform concept begins to provide Telcos an opportunity to start offering high value services to end users and vendors IF internal cultural issues allow for this change to happen. BT, Vodaphone, and Orange seem to be taking the most significant strides forward with the help of a few key SDP vendors.

So, we’ve seen the market try to define itself this year. From our perspective there is  overlap and potential coopetition with all of these  analyst phrases, product offerings, and strategic initiatives. Our sense is that 2008 will be the year of moving from strategy to tactics for real industry players. When implemented properly, any of these efforts truly can help businesses transform themselves.

Winners and losers will be declared in 2008 based upon helping real clients save money, speed up business processes, and improve services to end users.

Our experience helping clients shows us that customers do see the ROI value and need the technical assistance. For those companies that want to become or remain industry leaders, 2008 will be the year of delivering on the talk and thoughts of 2007.

Posted by Thomas Howe @ 12:58 pm | Filed Under Lead Stories | Leave a Comment

Yes, it’s true, Emerging Telephony lives again at the EComm 08 show. Lee Dryburgh is carrying the flag for the extreme edge of telephony innovation, and I’m happy to report that I’ll be there talking about using voice as way to enhance applications that have nothing to do with voice.
Good thing too, because right after this conference, I’ll be sticking around to lead the Spring VON innovator’s track. I’ll have a lot to share with my friends there. What the heck, I’ll be in San Jose for so long - I might just move the family out with me. Seriously, our VON shows have become real working events for us, without much time to stop and look around us. The EComm show will be a great place to be a participant and an attendee. I hope I’ll see you there.

Posted by Thomas Howe @ 1:57 pm | Filed Under Lead Stories | Leave a Comment

Andy sent me a note about Blue Note’s recent expansion of their API, and I’m glad he did. From their release :

The new APIs (application program interfaces) for BlueNote’s SessionSuite SOA Edition, which allows developers to embed voice within SOA applications running on IP networks, make it possible to add outbound notification and interactive response to business applications.

The ON-SF (Outbound Notification Solution Framework), based on Simple Object Access Protocol standards, makes it possible to add to business applications “proactive outbound notification,” according to Mark Ericson, director of product strategy for BlueNote.

For example, with consumer applications in the financial services industry, the ON-SF allows users to add account activity notification or stock alerts. In healthcare, prescription renewal notifications can be added, and, in transportation applications, flight delay or cancellation notifications can be added to existing business applications.

Of course, I’m a complete fan of companies like BlueNote and their competitor LignUp. Communications enhanced business processes are the real promise of VoIP for the Enterprise, and tools and APIs like this make it happen. My favorite part of the press release (I have a favorite part of a press release? My God, that’s a sad statement. I’m so uncool.) was their excellent reasoning around the dominance of web services architectures for voice mashups:

“We deliver the same capabilities as a voice platform would have—interaction over a phone with back end applications. But we took a more Web services approach. The only new skill the developer needs is to learn our simple API. Voice XML takes specialized skills and knowledge to build applications. It has its place, but where someone wants to add some phone reach to an application, we have a much easier approach,” said Ericson.

NKU’s Ferguson agreed. “We’re using sophomores to do the development work. We spent more time thinking through how we’re gong to apply it. The investment you have to make is the application of the technology and putting it in a situation where it can be successful and add value,” he said.

Let me check this out : O’Reilly thinks that there are between 3 and 4 million Java developers. According to InternetNews, php powers 26% of all websites. I’m a Ruby Developer, and there aren’t millions of them… I think. But maybe there is. The point is, this a great example of why voice mashups raise innovation into a whole new level.

Posted by Thomas Howe @ 1:36 pm | Filed Under Lead Stories | Leave a Comment

Just happened upon our first article in VON Magazine, spreading the good news about the end of innovation for traditional voice services. It’s the first in a series of articles about how mashups enable communication enhanced business processes, the promise of true voice innovation and real world examples from our customers about how it is transforming the way the enterprise does business.

Which reminds me… I’ve got a deadline in a few days! I’m on it, Doug.

Posted by Thomas Howe @ 3:47 pm | Filed Under Lead Stories | Leave a Comment

Looking at the typical carrier approach to presence and instant messaging makes me shake my head in wonder. You see, I’m convinced that the hubris of the large carrier is the most apparent when you look at how they approach web technologies. Actually, more accurately, how they imagine how the world will drop the current web deployments to fall in line with the carriers. I’ve seen slides countless times where the carriers would own the online presence of their subscribers, without regard to the 100 million computer users that currently have chat accounts with AOL, Microsoft and Yahoo! I’m sure there’s at least one IMS strategy based on this functionality. I need to call my broker and ask if I can short an idea.

There are two basic reasons for this massive disconnect. First, carriers still basically think they own the subscriber, even in the face of mounting churn, competing technologies and service providers, so they still fundamentally act like it. They believe that the general population is lemming like enough such that they will follow whatever scheme they put forward. Given the success metrics around value added services, I’m wondering if they’ve turned off the learning phase of their neural networks. Second, they can only view the world through their lens and from their mindset, and then try to solve the problem at hand in a very carrier centric way. Carriers really want to provide this functionality, so… they think they will. I really want to be 6′2″ like Pat, but I’m not rushing for a tape measure. To me, this is clearly a case where for all the money, power and regulation that a carrier can wield, they simply won’t be able to have their way.

The salient fact about instant messaging and presence is that there’s a huge installed base that’s not moving. Ever. To succeed, carriers need to realize that they can’t provide instant messaging applications and still be the ones who own the IM network. If they really want to provide applications that are presence aware, they need move to the back back of the bus and play nice with the IM heavy weights. Carriers need to know their place in this part of the world, and fast, before somebody who does eats their lunch.

And that’s the next challenge for carriers. What exists in the current telephony architecture (or even in future ones) that foster and support connections to external services like instant messaging and presence? Not much. IMS is designed for reliability and control, not for extensibility and inclusion. Web services architectures are built to connect disparate services, companies and networks. Given the massive amounts of engineering, traffic, commerce and interest SOA and web services deployments already have, no carrier effort will displace them when they wake up from their deep sleep. As light weight programming models like mashups dominate new service creation, their effects will be felt in every industry, without regard to size. The mashup approach brings the carrier world into the existing IM network ecosystem, not the other way around.

Will carriers continue to live in the IMS world, where the carrier is the focus and the star? I bet they will for a while, because the pain is not too great for them. Like any addict, carriers need to hit rock bottom before they realize that the open network destroyed their ownership of the subscriber. But they will, and when they do, a new day will dawn for them.

Technorati Tags: carriers, chat, IMS, instant messaging, telco mashups, thomas howe

Posted by Thomas Howe @ 12:07 pm | Filed Under Lead Stories | Leave a Comment

Thanks to Shrihari Pandit and his Stealth Communications team for putting on the Voice Peering Forum. It’s hard to get more elegant than the Ritz Carlton in New York  during the Christmas Season.

The Forum pulled together an interesting combination of telcos, vendors, and enterprise folks all with an interest in the Voice Peering Fabric, a private network of voice peering relationships. If you run a lot of minutes this is the community for you.

I had the benefit of collaborating on the two mashup panels as a speaker and moderator. What did I learn?

I really am beginning to admire the evangelists and companies that are doing the tough work of presenting new services to and within telcos. The obstacles to adoption and delivery of new services like CEBP ( communications enhanced business processes) and mashups from the telcos to their business clients are primarily about corporate culture. Do Telcos really have as good a channel to their customers as they want to believe?

I absolutely love talking with Enterprise customers about CEBP and Voice Mashups. The ability to have a creative what if conversation and then immediately tie a new idea to ROI is one of the best sides of this business.

My last takeaway from the Forum, any Google against the Telcos  argument really needs to be extended and analyzed in a much deeper way. Certainly, technical innovation has been fast and furious over the past few years . This phase is always followed by another phase of  business model innovation.  I’m certain pay per click advertising is not the end all be all of business model innovation.

Posted by Thomas Howe @ 6:36 pm | Filed Under Lead Stories | 1 Comment

I was speaking with a colleague recently who gave me the age-old luddite question: what’s really new with voice mashups? Haven’t we been doing voice applications for years? I’m having a hard time seeing what’s really new here.

Here’s what’s new: the application platform’s changing. The stuff under the application is different, and in nearly every respect. The history of all computing, but in telecommunications in particular, has been dominated by applications written on top of some sort of hardware, with a layer of software on top of it to allow it to access the hardware. If you stop for a second, it’s easy to see my colleague’s point, because at the end of the day, that’s all that could possibly be. You’ve got to have hardware SOMEWHERE, you’ve got to have a piece of software to let you talk to it. The part he’s missing is that in the old world, we are forced to use a particular piece of hardware (the one in that closet over there), or a particular piece of software (the one that my program linked to). In the new world, you access these network resources using web services, and everything about generation of these services is transparent to you. You might not even use the same piece of hardware twice. As you sit down an plug in your laptop, do you know what generator connected to the power grid made the electricity you are using? Even if you could, would you care? Of course not. Do you really believe that it’s going to matter who terminated your phone call in one hundred years? That might be happening already.

You may claim that telephony services aren’t nearly as generic as electricity. I challenge you on that assumption (and I suppose I’ll post about that later), and web services provide the interface to plug into that network.

Posted by Thomas Howe @ 9:09 am | Filed Under Lead Stories | Leave a Comment